Indian equity markets while touching new highs have been largely flattish the last year or so.
Markets have witnessed a narrow trend with large cap indices like Nifty 50 outperforming the broader markets on a YTD basis.
Few discretionary themes across Quick Commerce, Personal Products, Retail, and some Capex plays have witnessed sharp correction even as markets have been mostly flat last 1 year.
The policy makers have been focused to revive domestic growth through host of supportive measures like lower interest rates, reduced tax rates for middle income households and rationalization in Goods and Services Tax (GST) rates.
GST cuts and Income tax rationalisation has kept sentiments positive. Some sectors have benefited from these changes - mostly on discretionary side. Long term benefits of GST cuts are likely to accrue.
2Q results reflect core earnings and revenues growing 8-9% for the overall market with mid cap earnings doing better. Large cap and small cap earnings growth was lagging in 2Q season.
Earning next 1-2 years can trend higher due to the domestic support and solution on tariffs.
Better valued sectors like Banking are seeing Foreign Fund participation. Some moderation in foreign fund outflows is visible.
Whereas on the domestic end, the flows remain steady through SIPs which has seen some growth.
Global macro uncertainty persists along with the geo-political development and may lead to higher volatility in the near term.
Asset allocation in line with the risk appetite of the investor is an important tool to navigate any unanticipated volatility. While valuations have moderated from the peaks of last year, overall economic recovery and the global uncertainties needs to be monitored in this regard Large Cap & Large Cap oriented diversified strategies along with hybrid funds appear to be better placed on risk-reward basis, while Mid/Small cap allocation may be considered in a staggered manner through systematic investment with a long-term view.
India's high frequency data update:
Record levels of Goods and Services (GST) collections, stable retail inflation, deflated input inflation, rising core sector outputs, and elevated credit growth augurs well for the Indian economy.
Purchasing Managers’ Index Manufacturing PMI: India’s Purchasing Managers’ Index Manufacturing (PMI) in November 2025 fell to 56.6 from 59.2 in October 2025, continuing to remain in the expansion zone (>50) for the 51st straight month. The figure remained well above the long-term average (LTA), signalling continued strength in the sector. However, the latest reading reflects softer new order inflows amidst challenging market conditions.
Goods and Services Tax (GST Collection): Gross collections of INR 1.70 Tn (+0.7% YoY) in November 2025 concluded the forty fourth consecutive month of collections over the INR 1.4 Tn mark. The modest growth validates the government’s Goods and Services Tax (GST) 2.0 strategy, with November 2025 collections reflecting business activities of October 2025 showcasing the first full month of post-rate cut festive buying.
Core Sector Production: The index of eight core sector industries remained flat (0% YoY) in October 2025, against a (+3.3%) growth in September 2025. Four out of eight constituent segments grew YoY, driven by Fertilizers (+7.4% YoY), Steel (+6.7% YoY), Cement production (+5.3% YoY) & Refinery Products (+4.6% YoY).
Industrial Production: Factory output growth as measured by the Index of Industrial Production (IIP) grew YoY to (+0.4%) in October 2025, vs a growth of (+4.0%) YoY in September 2025. The slow growth in the month of October 2025 could be attributed to lesser number of working days because of a number of festivals in the month including Dussehra, Diwali and Chhath, driven by negative growths in 2 of 3 major sectors- Mining (-1.8% YoY), Manufacturing (1.8% YoY) and Electricity (-6.9% YoY).
Credit growth: Scheduled Commercial Bank Credit growth for October 2025 rose to (+11.4%) YoY vs (+10.7%) YoY as of September 2025. Agriculture and allied activities credit in September 2025 was stable at (+8.9%) YoY, while industrial sector credit grew by (+10.0%) YoY, the services sector credit grew by (+13.0%) YoY.
Inflation: October’s 2025 Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation rate decelerated MoM to 0.25% (the lowest since June 2017), down from (-1.44%) in September 2025. Food inflation slowed YoY to (-5.02%), down from (–2.33%) in the previous month of September 2025 but remaining negative for the Fifth consecutive month. The Wholesale Price Index (WPI) inflation fell sequentially in October 2025, with the print at (-1.21%) YoY, primarily due to decrease in prices of food articles, crude petroleum & natural gas, electricity, mineral oils and manufacture of basic metals etc.
Trade Deficit: Indian Merchandise Exports fell by (+11.8%) YoY to $34.4 Bn in October 2025, while Imports rose by (+16.6%) YoY to $76.1 Bn. Merchandise trade deficit rose to an all-time high of $41.7 Bn growing (+59.16%) YoY. The increase in imports was primarily owing to the tripling in gold imports aided by festive demand and possibly speculative/investment demand higher prices, as well as a robust 12.4% growth in non-oil non-gold items. The widening deficit was exacerbated by recent U.S. tariff hikes on Indian goods, which affected key export sectors such as textiles, shrimp, and gems.
Events to watch out for in December 2025:
Trade Related News flow: Tariff news flow remains volatile, with changes to be monitored closely by the markets. Indian bilateral agreements to be watched.
Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC Meet): The US Federal Reserve announced a 25bps interest rate cut to the range of 3.75%-4.00% after its two-day policy meeting ended on 29 October 2025. The US Federal Reserve also said that the central bank will now be focusing on the balance of risk in the US economy, along with the evolving outlook and the incoming data, to further decide on the future route of the key interest rates. The next FOMC meet is scheduled for 9-10th December, 2025.
Other things to watch out for: Oil Market volatility with the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC+) increasing production and Post Festive Season Demand normalisation.
Asset allocation in line with investment goals and risk appetite is important for better risk – return optimization. Herein asset allocation funds investing across two or more asset classes can help in lowering volatility and may provide better balance to the overall portfolio mix.
